Brexit?  What Brexit?

It’s like as if it’s not happening at all. There’s hardly a word about it. It’s off the main headlines of the main media, relegated perhaps a little mercifully by relatively minor issues such as the demotion of the Duke and Duchess of Sussex.

Meanwhile the House of Lords has already inflicted it’s first defeat to Johnson’s Government, not that it’ll make any difference.  And there was a defeat of the Governments’ EU Withdrawal deal in Stormont [which has by now returned to sitting a week ago as a matter of grave urgency since the DUP got shafted by Boris’ Tories].  Not that Stormont will make any difference to Brexit either.

So after all the palaver, it’s happening in 11 days, whether the Lords or Stormont like it or not.

While these democratic institutions are already in place, the election has by now been called in the Republic.  Already it’s showing signs of the same skulduggery as what went down in other national votes – nobody candidates trying to make a name for themselves by coming out with inflammatory and offensive statements. Spurious Facebook pages being set up to push out questionable graphics about the current Government – negative campaigning on the rise.

 

 

It’d sicken your proverbial arse.. Not even a whole week gone since the confirmation of the new Tory administration and already the EU Withdrawal Agreement bill has been amended and passed by the House of Commons.

I choose to record the piece below because the pic with this Irish Times article at least shows the total rogues gallery that is the Tory front bench. These are not straight-talkers, these are not in it for the common man, they don’t even have their own country’s best interests at heart. They’re a pure horror show.

The bill has been amended to prohibit any extension of the withdrawal period beyond December 2020.

In other words, the greased up piglet [Johnson] is maximising the use he’s making of his fresh mandate and he really does not care what are the effects of his actions.

This is what his brand of politics is all about. He now holds the power [achieved by lying] and he wants to show everyone how prepared he is to use it. Which is making the whole situation more dangerous by the week. He’s no better than Gadafi. There’s claim against counter-claim about what’s going on behind the scenes, from Russian money being used to fund the Tory party, to suggestions that some of the wealthier donors of the Brexit cause are buying EU citizenship in Cyprus.

They’ve also already begun their program of selling out the family jewels to US backers by approving the sale of a military supply company Cobham, a move which is being criticised by the very family who originally founded the company as potentially compromising the UK’s own defence.

Which is what’s so scary about the whole situation – the sources of these reports are highly credible, and yet there seems to be little or no shame on the part of the political class even though they’re being called out at every turn.

Johnson has already been found to be moving the goal posts in the EU negotiations. Varadkar already coming out with statements, looking like he’s regretting digging out the Tories. It proves even more, as if any more proof were needed, how untrustworthy Johnson is in negotiations. It’s starting to look cheaper for the EU to themselves force a No Deal on the UK just to bring on the chaos these Tories seem to lust for and let them be shown up for the chancers they actually are. If that is not allowed to happen and there’s some sort of appeasement shown them, they’ll just keep going squeezing their neighbours for as much as they can get. And the EU will then be finished anyway. Not an inch should he be given and the EU and Ireland should take it’s chances on No Deal.

 

 

 

This blog began from an analysis of the history of the period of the Irish Rebellion just over 100 years ago. It is profoundly interesting to look back at what are the conditions which lead to the various historic occurrences of the time.

Last night, at around 10:00pm the news broke that the Conservative Party had won a landslide victory in the Brexit Election at the expense of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour.

There are many notable headlines relating to this resounding result. Here are just a couple of them –

• Gone – Nigel Dodds, Belfast North, Deputy leader of the DUP
• Gone – Jo Swinson, East Dunbartonshire, Leader of the Liberal Democrats
• Gone – Jeremy Corbyn standing down in the new year as leader of the Labour Party
• Elected – Colum Eastwood, Foyle
• There are now more Sinn Fein MP’s elected to Westminster than there are DUP members
• Prime Minister Boris Johnson no longer needs the support of either the DUP or the ERG group to push through the Withdrawal agreement
• Brexit is now a certainty
• Labour has suffered it’s worst defeat since 1935
• The SNP took 80% of the seats in Scotland making a new Scottish independence referendum inevitable.

 

Now Comes the Hard Part

So lest there be any doubt about it, Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party has won this election based on the pure lie of Brexit. The comment was made on Morning Ireland this morning that Populism works in winning an election – and the sentence stopped there, which of course, it shouldn’t have.

Jeremy Corbyn for example won the leadership of the Labour Party over several years of challenges to his style and approach, all of which he saw off by dint of his populist following, which worked a treat in the short[ish] term. That shortish term is now over and he’s left ruing what might have been. Also of course, he got found out.

Yanis Varoufakis of Greece’s Syriza came to power as the Finance Minister of Greece also by making promises that were impossible to deliver. That didn’t go great for him of course.

This won’t go well for Mr. Johnston either. The problem is the amount of ordinary people who this will go so horribly wrong for.

And when it does, they must be reminded about the amount of vainglorious crowing they have done now. Not that I’m wishing it on them. But car factories will close. Jobs will be lost. The NHS will most likely be privatised and at least partly sold off to American providers. It will not be good for poor people in the UK. But they asked for this situation. They bought the lie, not just moderately enthusiastically. Despite the “brick through a window” evidence that the lie was being pushed on them by old Etonian capitalists, they bought it – hook, line and sinker. Which is why it will not be easy to have sympathy for the little Englanders who this will impact on the most.

Finally, why would I feel so confident in making such a bold political prediction? That’s because I made one big prediction a couple of years ago when the DUP was inexplicably campaigning for a “Yes” vote in the Brexit referendum. My prediction was that that would turn out to be a disastrous decision for them. They were supposed to be the political experts, yet for some reason those experts didn’t appear to be capable of realising this blindingly obvious fact.

I can’t resist signing off with this silver lining before in the, otherwise, dark cloud…

While the topic of Brexit is very much to the fore in the current election campaign the cut and thrust of the Brexit debate itself has calmed considerably.

There was not much discussion even about Ireland up until last week when the TV debate between the two main contenders swung around to Ireland.

The standard of debate has been unwatchable to say the least. The press coverage of the election points to a vacuous electorate incapable of distinguishing between fact and spin and incapable of deciphering political skill from celebrity make believe by politicians.

Suffice it to say that it’s more important now than ever that Ireland’s people are separated from the rigors of the fractured UK electorate – in particular, the group of increasingly right wing English nationalists. Bad enough that our economy and our agriculture will suffer as a result of Brexit when it eventually does come to pass, how much worse would it have been, had there not been a Republic established and our political lot would also have been laid bare to the whims of this group of alt-right hooligans.

 

Meanwhile the above more recent report again harks back to the totally disconcerting tendency of the UK Prime Minister to LIE THROUGH HIS TEETH. Yet for some reason, if current reports are to be believed, his Government is ahead in the polls and is likely to win an overall majority – astonishing as that might seem to the rest of the world.

The biggest concern is how those who would vote for him seem not to care whatsoever about the lies.

For Labour’s part – their chances of success have fallen perhaps entirely as a consequence of the party’s mis-handling of accusations of anti-semitism, a perhaps fatal wound which can only be described as self-inflicted. Anti-semitism has been rumbling for 2 years or more and because of the “far-left” nature of the Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn, they have left themselves open to attack by the increasingly far-right Conservatives – an electoral hit the party could have easily avoided with the slightest ounce of foresight or wit. Most unforgivably, this leaves Remainers entirely isolated and defenseless against Brexit touting Tories and Brexit party campaigns.

Meanwhile back in Northern Ireland, it seems Boris Johnson has already banked on winning an overall majority and not needing the support of the DUP come Friday of this week.

While in reality it is of little consequence to most of us whether the DUP leader would trust Boris Johnson ever again, or not, it is nevertheless significant that she has so publicly ruled out dealing with him by not trusting him.

 

 

 

The last 15 days has seen something of a temporary diversion from all of the previous wrangling. From start to finish the entire episode has been both a volume of Research in silliness while at the same time an almost Marvelesque realisation of the expiration of the order of the world.

So while people in Full Irish Brexit land might not ever have been too fond of Britain, to see it devouring itself in the way that it has been in recent years is alarming to say the least. Not because people are necessarily too bothered about Britain, but because people will realise that if it can happen to them, then it can happen anywhere, which is certainly concerning.

There’s a lot in what he’s saying. Despite what most of us would have hoped things might at some point get back to some semblance of normality, however, there is a growingly scary and eerie feeling of “no going back” about this entire debacle.

So regardless of how any of this election might effect Ireland in the future – there are many reasons to be concerned about the integrity of the probable winner of the British general election. And while the aspects of the Brexit saga which may impact on Ireland may be on pause for now, the disintegration of standards in public office cannot be good.

Aside from these issues – it’s the pre-election pacts which are attracting the most amount of airplay interest. This is because they are likely to determine the outcome of the election. There is a Unite To Remain grouping on one side, while the Brexit Party has now finally undertaken to not field candidates in constituencies in which there are sitting Tory MP’s. This is likely to be good for Johnson’s hopes. However there has also been an accusation of meddling by senior Tory’s offering jobs and peerages to Brexit party members if they stood aside entirely – an accusation which is currently being investigated by police as criminal interference, following an outcry by labour.

There are many twists and turns left in this.

This was supposed to be the famous Brexit day.  The day that Boris Johnson was supposed to “Die in a Ditch” rather than not deliver Brexit.

Instead the UK is now on an election footing. Which means that Brexit has been yet again extended.

The entire debacle has therefore entered a new chapter of election wrangling. For Labour’s part, the only reason they have agreed to now finally support the election bill is because a no deal has been taken off the table.

Therefore there is now a pattern of election pacts on both sides of the Brexit debate.

The Remain side have had the roller coaster ride of the past few months in which they have swung from the possibility of no deal to now the chance of a new referendum.

 

 

After months of day after day wrangling, push then counter push, scandal followed by outrage, precedents broken – we find ourselves this weekend trying to figure out where things are actually at? Some of us that is. Many people have simply gone past caring. We have everything from those still talking childishly about just “getting Brexit done” as though everything in life could just be done in the same way as a switch can get flicked, to those who are still dreaming of a new referendum which will see the whole thing just go away. People on both sides of the argument are perhaps hoping that those on the other side will somehow lose interest or get distracted, in order for their way, to win out. Although none of that is looking like happening.

The DUP this week got a taste of their own medicine with Westminster imposing a change in the abortion and same sex marriage laws of Northern Ireland due to the fact that the assembly is not sitting. Ironic or what. They are killed telling everyone how much they want to identify with the rest of “GB” as they so ardently refer to it (the only ones I know who refer to the UK as GB), yet they strive so hard to keep NI unpolluted by social values coming over from the mothership GB. Ironic is one word – downright confused is another.

It’s hard not to wonder when are they going to realise they have seriously backed the wrong horse in all of this and they’d have been better to chose remain from the getgo.

It’s harder still not to wonder if this is not somehow the beginning of the end for the DUP or how will they survive the next 10 years.

Generally the week was characterised by votes on Monday and Tuesday to do with the timing of the debating around the Withdrawal Bill. It was technical but losely speaking, the Commons voted in favour of Boris Johnson’s Withdrawal Bill which was seen as a major victory for him, however they voted against his timetable for pushing the Bill through Parliament at a faster speed than any other such legislation. After which he decided to “Pause” the process.  There was something else about the speaker of the House refusing a further debate on something similar to the debate on the previous Saturday bla bla… it’s all just becoming such a big game at this stage that people are broadly leaving them to it.

Personally, it’s starting to become apparent that regardless of what happens next – politics is radically changed since before all of this started. The allocation of power now seems to be based on how far you are prepared as a parliamentarian, to stick your neck out and push the envelope of truth and the position that you’re prepared to risk, regardless of how that might effect the ordinary voter.

The past week has seen an another extraordinary sequence of events.  During a steady build-up of hype leading up to the day of the EU Council meeting there was frantic toing an froing between the DUP and No. 10 as well as leaks and counter-leaks. Finally on Thursday, despite the DUP stating plainly that it would not be in a position to support any deal which dealt differently with Northern Ireland than how the rest of the UK was treated, a deal was actually announced.

The position on the customs arrangement was that effectively Northern Ireland would have the best of both worlds. However, the DUP was swift to state it would not now support it at the Saturday debate devoted to the Deal. Heated statements from the DUP at that sitting was highly critical about the issue of the consent arrangement within the deal.

In the heal of the hunt, and somewhat confusingly, the Saturday sitting of parliament was fudged by an amendment introduced by Sir Oliver Letwin, which, along with the Benn act, make it virtually impossible for No Deal to remain on the table. This stymies the Tories and probably causes this deal to be dead already.

There has been a lot of interesting commentary. Not all of it is particularly relevant to Ireland in that it’s all about parliamentary wrangling in the UK. It’s all very hard to follow and almost certainly a large portion of even the British public has tuned out. In fact a new experimental Sky News channel has been launched with is effectively a Brexti free zone – basically covering all the other non-brexit related news, so tired are they of hearing all about the machinations of the Leave and Remain camps.

While on the main Sky website there are podcasts which are extremely useful in gauging the mood – including a representative of the Irish Voice newspaper – Allison Morris who is definitely one of the most balanced commentators

As of now, it looks like the next 24 hours will consist of even more wrangling with a possible Meaningful vote either tomorrow or Tuesday. While the Labour Party, for their part is almost completely committed now to a second referendum.

Meanwhile the only other person who sounds remotely like an expert, is Philip Hammond – below is his warning about the deal.

Today, Boris Johnson has written letters to Europe, on the one hand acknowledging that he is being forced to request a delay and on the other hand saying he doesn’t agree with it.

The skulduggery continues…

 

Yesterday’s post was devoted to the Deplorables of the Brexiteer Tory front bench who are sorely and completely clueless of the mess that they are dragging their own people into, their supporters into and their neighbours into.

Today there are reports of exactly how serious  the careless words and steps by those air-head politicians could be on and for the island of Ireland. There was a report in the Sunday Times of how the remains of Loyalist paramilitary organisations of the UVF and the UDA are plotting to bring street protests to Northern Ireland if it is perceived that Prime Minister Johnson is in any changing the status of Northern Ireland either economically or politically.

This blog page is nothing if it is not a record of how the Brexit story is playing out in Ireland. While for the most part it is an enjoyment to chronicle the history, there is no enjoyment whatsoever in hearing about the prospect of all out violence again. So senseless, so needless and no matter how the politicians try to come out criticising the thugs, it is all on them for sowing the seeds of nationalist feelings within their communities.

For some excellent coverage of the dangerous situation as it has been evolving – listen to the DriveTime show of this afternoon – click below and fast forward to 35mins 15 secs.

Meanwhile in Brussels, it looks like there isn’t much cheer although that depends on who you listen to.

The Deplorables are being well and truly found out these days as the eleventh hour approaches.  These novices have been strutting around steeped in smug superiority written all over their faces for the past 2 years, pushing the limits of everyone’s patience.  The British media has seemed to be giving them an unbelievably easy ride, failing to really expose their lack of any real judgement, subject knowledge or command of their brief. That situation seems at last to be changing.

While the negotiations didn’t seem to yield anything today, the Tories are at pains to be stressing how positive and upbeat everything is, while the EU on the other hand, seems to be playing everything down.

And the real prize for being out of her political depth in these crucial days and hours goes to the uniquely deplorably vacuous Priti Patel. While others are at least to some extent aware of the short-comings in their arguments and have the cuteness to steer interviewers away from their own areas of weakness, poor Priti has been relying on her good looks, her pleasant smile and her membership of that sheer brass neck club to get her through this entire debacle. She sees no reason to steer the conversation, so confident is she in her own superior ability. However today on the Andrew Marr show, she got hauled right back down to reality as she was told of all the industries who are horrified at the prospect of no deal. It’s no wonder Theresa May shafted her out of her cabinet.

Marr challenged her on why she was still wearing that trade mark smirk of hers which she seems to use to convey this sense of knowing something that the rest of us ordinary eegits would not possibly understand, because  higher order knowledge on the subject of Brexit such as hers is only the preserve of card carrying members  of the sheer brass neck club, such as herself.  That knowing look of hers or knowing Smirk as the Metro has called it, seems not to be so knowing after all…. shocker. It remains between her and Dominic Raab as to which of the deplorable tramps will be singled out for the most revulsion in years to come when the history books are written about this entirely forgettable chapter in political history.