#69DaysToBrexit – 2nd Referendum -Starmer

It had not been the intention to post on the weekends – but such is the sense of watershed historical moment about this week that it was obvious that a note on the day would be needed.

Firstly to the New York Times which ran the following piece this morning and which was picked up by MSN and Yahoo News:

69 newyork times

Having recently watched a shocking documentary on the partition of India, it’s tempting to enjoy and to rate this piece of Brit-bashing as highly relevant to the Brexit debate. Some of the points about the old Tory traditions are intriguing if not compelling.

Yet the writer fails to acknowledge that those same [current] Tory politicians were democratically elected by their actual real local constituents. And while the onus on political leaders to lead effectively [and this cohort of Tory politicans clearly aren’t] is accepted – there is nonetheless also an onus on the [British] electorate to inform themselves and to vote their brightest and best representatives to parliament. The Liberal Democrats ran on a second referendum ticket in the last British General election and this bid failed to get them elected. Therefore this NY Times article is as much a commentary on the failings of a British electorate [and how they place their votes] as it is a revelation about their British ruling parties. Ultimately the people get the Government they deserve. While it may be a thought-provoking piece, it’s hard to see what it really brings to the debacle.

Meanwhile back at the wall of mainstream British Media, someone called Keir Starmer – the shadow Brexit secretary – has stolen a bit of the limelight for himself by declaring A Second In-out referendum must be one of the options on the table. Crucially he sets out that it’s difficult to see how an extension to Article 50 can be avoided.

69 keir starmer

#70DaysToBrexit – Complete Stalemate – and a call for a Citizen’s Assembly

Yesterday at an event in CityWest I spoke to a British businessman who says that he has detected that many British MP’s who would not have dared utter the words Second Referendum up to now are now saying those words regularly.

The currencies and other markets are tending to be pricing in the potential for a “softer” Brexit.

Listen to Tommie Gorman on RTE’s Morning Ireland – on a potential softening of the DUP. Probably a bit optimistic on his part – wishful thinking to say the least.

It’s an absolute fascination to look at the amount of ego commentating, intervening and feeding off the whole debate. From the DUP, to Jacob Rees-Mogg, to Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister, not to mention the number of journalists who are hogging the debate with their viewpoints such as Andrew Pearce of the Daily Mail.  All that domination of the airwaves – yet little or no leadership.

The elder statesmen are also all over the situation from Bertie Ahern and John Bruton in Ireland to John Major, Peter Mandelson, Tony Blair and perhaps the most grown-up of those voices likely to wield any influence – Gordon Brown. He’s citing Ireland’s success in progressing through the Abortion debacle by way of a Citizen’s assembly as a means of breaking the deadlock. From their point of view – better breaking the deadlock than breaking up their precious union. Some week.

70gordonbrown

#71Days to – Brexit – The Gift of Political Geekery that Keeps on Giving

The wrangling is getting down to the serious business of reaching across the house to opposition parties, something which most commentators say should have been done from the start.

In the latest twist of what has been a tantalising thrill-fest for political anoraks, Jeremy Corbyn (leader of the Britsh Labour Party) has stated that he will only hold talks with the Prime Minister Theresa May, if she sets out in advance that No Deal is taken off the table.  She in turn says that this is an impossible condition.

Harking back to something pointed out a week ago by Ronan McCrea of the University of London – see #77DaysToBrexit – May states that either you have Brexit under a withdrawal deal, or you revoke article 50 and ignore the referendum. Which it would seem she is factually correct about and it’s starting to look like she’s more in the driving seat than Corbyn might have imagined – and he in turn is looking ever more frustrated by “her” tactics. Did he underestimate her skills.

may & corbyn

So while for drama alone – today has been a quiet round by comparison to the previous 2 days, maybe today is one of the days when people look back on who is most likely to blink first. The account of the day by Sky is lips-lickingly hard to beat.

71 sky article

#72DaysToBrexit – A Win for the Tories – But they could split

The next steps came under the spotlight today. The proposal came from the Prime Minister Theresa May that she would now reach out to other parties. However the Labour Party has already set out that the pre-condition to their votes would be remaining in the customs union which would in turn be a red-line for most of her own Tory supporters. Therefore the most striking scenario today was that in order to get a deal she would be taking a decision which could result in a Tory split.

Another comment today which you would have needed your ear to the ground to pick up on it, was that the French might be less willing to accede to Britain and are inclined to let them go if they want to go for fear of keeping them in during and after the European elections – imagine if UKIP had more Eurosceptic MEP’s elected. Best rid of Britain in that scenario before those elections.

Politicians in Ireland and in Europe are sticking to their guns that the problem is for Westminster to sort out and the ball is still in their court. The Pound is back up to 88p to the Euro which is in the expectation of a softer Brexit now following lastnights’ vote.

article 50 delay

Michel Barnier

But she survived the Vote of no confidence tabled lastnight by Jeremy Corbyn.  However patience from Business leaders in the UK is running out – while there is renewed enthusiasm for separatists both in Scotland and in Northern Ireland.

These are interesting days.

 

#73 daystoBrexit – Defeat by 230 votes

The day started with discussions on Irish radio about Rosslare’s preparedness for a hard Brexit. That has now turned out to be opportune.

Following hours of proceedings in the Commons – the MP’s voted at around 7:30pm. The proceedings were watched on TV’s across the world and the outcome could not have been clearer or more definitive.

What remains unclear, is that the Prime Minister Theresa May has committed to remaining on in her job. Jeremy Corbyn has immediately called for a motion of no confidence in the Government.

73 days historic defeat

#74Days to Brexit – 24 hours to go to the Meaningful Vote

This could be the last day of relative normality for quite a long time – and that doesn’t even feel like an over-statement.  The predictions are that the deal being put to parliament is likely to be defeated by as many as 225 votes.

It is reported that the British people, just like the rest of us have grown tired of even the mention of Brexit. To the extent that it’s hard not to feel that we are gone past caring what the outcome even is – such is the chidishness of the British politicians – every argument met with a counter-argument, every suggestion put down by a counter-suggestion, every vote voted down by a counter-vote.

One of the points made this evening and on many occasions recently is that Britain has lost it’s place as a leader in Europe over the past 2 and a half years – through squabbling and naval-gazing.

sophie in't veld mep

And over the weekend, racist abuse shouted at Simon Zebo in a Racing Metro match against Ulster. The credit for this descent into loutish ignorance can be claimed by those pushing for populist nationalism on all sides. The only defence against which can only come from grown-up attitudes and behaviour from the rest of us.

 

reassurance letter

Following a last minute exchange of letters of reassurance by both the EU and Britain, the vote is likely to be even more heavily defeated.

See also: – Channel 4 –

UK finance chief warns of no-deal Brexit ‘catastrophe’ for banking industry

#77 Days to Brexit – Day 3 of the Debate

Today the Japanese firm Hitachi pulled out of a contract to build a nuclear power station on the Cumbria coast. One of the main reasons cited for the break down was Brexit – the Japanese are said to be enraged about Brexit after 30 years of investment in their British businesses.

While Ford is also signalling job losses in the UK today were not being blamed on Brexit, a hard Brexit was said to be an exacerbating threat.

This is the 2nd day in a row of bleak economic news in Britain.

In Ireland, along the former border with Northern Ireland, the OPW is said to be actually reclaiming land where there used to be check-points. However Channel 4 is also pointedly reporting tonight in big bold letters how Dublin could be attracting some of London’s lost jobs in Ireland’s tech and financial sectors. They have pointed out how people joke in Dublin about being bombarded with job offers from London companies. Dozens of cranes on the sky line and UK banks moving over.

The meaningful vote is still said to be facing certain defeat – see this interview below on Prime Time with a Professor Ronan McCrea – Political Law Professor at University College London. He points to “So much delusion and dishonesty at Westminster”. He says the amendments to rule out a no deal Brexit make no difference – either the Withdrawal Agreement is either accepted, Brexit is cancelled or they end up with a No Deal brexit.

ronan mccrea prime time

Ronan McCrea, Law Professor at University College London speaking to Miriam O’Callaghan, RTE Prime Time

 

Jaguar Job Losses & Coveney Forces a DUP Meet-up U-Turn

The day started with an earnest Coveney played on Morning Ireland voicing his frustration with the DUP focusing all of their Brexit efforts on London. They had, he implied, declined to meet with Irish Government representatives and in the interview he was said to be “agonising” in public over the lack of contact.

By the Six One news this evening, that position had changed and a hastily arranged meeting had been convened with Arlene Foster, Nigel Dodds and others.

thurs 10.01.19 foster & coventy

They in turn were described after the meeting as suddenly being being conscious of their public image and the perception of them – see this link (15mins 25secs in).

The Economic news in Britain today seems to have been overwhelmingly negative with Retail sales at it’s lowest level for 10 years and Jaguar Land Rover cutting 4,500 jobs, in part due to Brexit uncertainty..

daily mail jaguar jobs

 

 

#CommonsDefeat2 – #79DaysToBrexit – Delay now Inevitable – Wed 9th Jan 2019

Farce on top of farce. This evening there has been another Commons defeat for the British Government, in what has been seen as an effort by parliament to intervene more directly in the Brexit crisis and take control of it. The defeat came as a result of the Speaker of the House, John Bercow allowing an amendment to a piece of Brexit legislation which would force a 3-day timescale [instead of 21 days] for a Plan B in the event of a failure of the Brexit Deal vote next Tuesday. Normally back-benchers are not allowed to table amendments.

guardian wed 9th jan 2019

The other key inkling today is that Labour are suggesting a delay in the triggering of Article 50 is now inevitable.

Six days left til the vote.

skynews defeat2 wed 9.1.19

A Commons Defeat, Deadlock – And a call for a Citizens Assembly in Britain

The Brexit crisis just gets crazier and more convoluted by the day. The mood is changing from one of calm acceptance and everyone biding their time, to some very clever machinations now which may yet prove to bring about some type of breakthrough.

bbc tues 8th

The Guardian in it’s editorial today has pointed to the potential for a citizen’s assembly to break the political deadlock. It explicitly cites Ireland’s Citizen’s assembly process in relation to the right to life.

guardian citizens assembly

An atmosphere around the palace of Westminster has developed which has been described as febrile with remainer MP being harassed and called a Nazi.