As a piece of pure political theatre, the last two days of the week just gone – Thursday and Friday probably will turn out in history to be in a league all of their own.

As reported, a meeting happened between the Taoiseach of Ireland, Leo Varadkar and the Prime Minister of Great Britain, Boris Johnson. No one expected anything from it. Not much was reported after the meeting other than that it had been a “constructive” meeting and that the Irish group felt a deal now was eminently possible after meeting the British. Happy days. Just not too many of us expected too much from it all.

Then on Friday details started to be drip fed about an adaptation of the previously rejected double customs check of last week. The gist of the plan,  it turns out, is that Northern Ireland will remain aligned with the EU. In theory, the only time this will be a problem for Northern Irish businesses would be when, after Brexit, the UK wins favorable trade Deals with other world countries such as Japan, Australia and the US – however in these instances those businesses would pay a tariff – as it is aligned with EU Customs. However they would be entitled to a rebate of that tariff.

Best of both worlds in other words.

And of course, predictably enough – right on cue, the DUP are already out saying they won’t agree to it. They won’t agree to something which would “benefit” their electorate.

Undoubtedly Johnson will have factored in their objection.

Prediction

We don’t actually know what will happen over the coming days. But I already have a prediction. The EU and UK negotiating parties have already had a little look into the tunnel. I’m expecting that much will be made of how tight the timeline now is prior to the 31st of October – either too tight of course for a deal to be done necessitating an extension or lacking in votes in the commons. But a proper Brexit is now theoretically possible with this new customs accord. So that will be enough to satisfy the ERG that a workable deal is in prospect, which if they don’t accept, they risk an extension until after the election. An election which could see a very different balance of power in a new Parliament, including the potential for the new deal to be put to a so called “Confirmatory” vote in a referendum , which is favoured by many Tories such as Dominic Grieve.  That’ll be too risky for Brexiteers, yet they’re still probably too stupid to accept it without taking their chances on the extension being forced. Then after a general election, Johnson either wins an overall majority without his needing DUP votes, in which case they lose out, or Labour wins and there is no automatic Brexit anyway.

It may have been all just a load of spin. It also may have been two desperate Dans getting together to dig one another out of two individual and very deep holes. Or it may have been politics doing what politics is supposed to be doing – which is that it’s the art of the possible. Not focusing on the intransigence of the extremes, but rather on the middle ground.

Personally, I do not believe that very much of any great substance is likely to develop. There is simply not enough by way of detail that I believe will assuage the extremists. No matter how desperate either of these leaders are, they both have red lines. And their backers have red lines – ie. the EU on the Irish side, but also the ERG and the DUP on the British side. While I would love to believe that these two Varadkar and Johnson can have a warm and constructive relationship, and I would love for them to prove me wrong in thinking that neither of them is a negotiator of any great substance or depth.

If they prove me wrong – I’ll be delighted.

Meanwhile, Bertie was on the BBC again tonight. Like Blair, it is often useful to listen to what he has to say, given his Good Friday Agreement expertise. Nevertheless, I don’t believe anyone in the EU will be particularly convinced about his theories on a technological border. And he may not have any clout anyway, but it probably will go down well in Britain that the water being poured by any Irish voice, on this occasion at least, is not freezing cold.

Here is a link to the actual Varadkar statement, which will no doubt prove to be historic enough.

We’re in the last couple of days now within which any start of Brexit deal dialogue would need to be happening in order for it to bring about a deal before the European Council meeting next week. That dialogue has not happened. And in fact it is moving further away than ever as a phone call with Angela Merkel this morning appears to have resulted in further recriminations.

The poster to the right below was released by the Brexit party.

The language also has descended into incitement of Northern Irish by talking about them being asked “to remain and rot inside the EU customs union”.

Commentators state that the language used to describe the Merkel phonecall, sounds nothing like her patient and diplomatic form.

On the other hand, an anonymous text from an official close to No. 10 has caused serious recriminations. Getting worrying.

There was certainly one standout moment during last week – from an unlikely source. The BBC program Question Time featured an author named Bonnie Greer who had a stark warning for Britons – essentially that their view of Ireland tended to be that Ireland was not even a separate state from the UK. She has a point.

There have been lots of other developments. Mostly predictable, such as… let me see, oh yes Boris tested the water with a so-called “Final Offer” which was a mickey mouse effort of a compromise proposal and such a hotch botch that he probably pulled it out of his hole and expected people to take him seriously on the back of his Tory Party conference boost.  Ya, it’s hard not to be a bit embarrassed for the Tories – like something out of the Emperor’s New Clothes.  Truth is there was little or nothing by way of a compromise.

Not surprisingly the offer itself was completely rejected by the EU. Yet again, the grown-ups thankfully standing up to the juvenile tantrum child.

Another grown-up viewpoint has come in the middle of all of this from Tony Blair. While he may not be most people’s cup of tea he has been consistently pointing out the danger to the Northern Irish peace process inherent in a no deal Brexit.

“Absolute disgrace” is one of the terms being used to describe proposals which have been leaked that the British Government is believed to be considering.

These proposals had no sooner been released lastnight by an RTE report than they were absolutely rubbished by all parties in Dublin. So much so that the Prime Minister was forced to distance himself from their own non-paper this morning, claiming that this “stuff” was already out of date.

Which begs the question whether anyone in London has the slightest clue what they’re doing.  It looks very definitely like the populist position has been adopted by the front bench of the Conservatives and there is not one of them who even remotely understands Ireland. And it does not remotely look like they care whether they understand the position or not. As long as they muscle their plan through, it’ll be up to everyone else to adapt to suit them – in their minds.

And while it’s relatively easy to imagine that this could diminish their standing in the world overall, right now, it’s hard to imagine how they will even remotely be punished at the ballot box. Leaving everyone in Ireland to suffer the consequences of Britain’s actions while they [supporters of the Conservatives]just go back to playing the role of “disastrously bad neighbour”.

The really worrying thing is that despite all the opposition to the possibility of such disastrous proposals in Dublin, Northern Ireland and Brussels, the British electorate seems only capable of articulating their affected frustration and dismissal of any serious examination of the topic and resorting to stating their desire to get on with it.. as though the complication of the entire topic still hasn’t made any impression on them at all.

Even the British Civil service is reported to be unnerved by the whole mess.

Only a few short years ago the language being used around any “one” of the issues in connection with this British Prime Minister and his front bench would have been enough to precipitate a Governance crisis. However in this atmosphere, no one shock seems to be enough to deflect the electorate or their Government – such is the extraordinary nature of the times we live in – certainly explainable by populism.

Given the pace of developments over the past 2 weeks, I’ve taken to listening to a Sky News Podcast called All Out Politics. This one from today  called the People V Paliament Narrative is probably the most fascinating discussion to date, coming at a really crucial time.

Shorting the Pound

There are two other serious developments today. One is that both Rachel Johnson, sister of the PM and Sir Philip Hammond have come out today to suggest that the whole drive at the moment for the no Deal is motivated by a massive bet by Brexits billionaire backers that the no Deal will cause the Pound to plummet and make them a lot of money.

If such accusations were being made by anyone else, I’d pass no remarks on them. The fact they’re coming from 2 such reliable sources makes me believe they are founded in the truth.

Civil Unrest

Unbelievably, the other big issue of the day is the belief that the Brexiter plan to bypass the Benn Act is now widely considered to be emergency legislation which would be necessitated by Gilet Jaunes type riots in the UK. Unlikely to work, although the fact that it’s being suggested is noteworthy enough in itself.

There have been a quite a few talking points over the past couple of days since that famous day on Tuesday when Johnson’s prorogation was found to have been unlawful.

One of the biggest talking points has been the inflaming of the language in the Commons yesterday.

If we were completely unconnected neutral observers, this would be fascinating viewing. We are not however unconnected to this situation. Principally because we have such close connections to ordinary decent British people. As well of course as how much we identify with ordinary decent Americans. These two great countries are allowing themselves to be hijacked by dumber than dumb buffoons. It looks like it’s all just a bit of bluster and entertainment at face value. It’s not however just a bit of fun – it’s all becoming quite serious. And yesterday a number of new lows were hit, not least when BJ suggested the best way to honour Jo Cox’s memory was to deliver Brexit – how disgraceful. He also called the fact MP’s are receiving death threats as “humbug” – click here to view. He remains however completely unapologetic.

Perhaps even more chillingly, the expectation and widely commented view is that this is his deliberate if clumsy strategy to whip up support for his “people V parliament” election strategy.

And where does this leave them and their societies?

Both of these countries were built by hard-working decent people who did not seek the limelight. Therefore their views go largely unmeasured or recorded. It is hard not to think that there remains a sizeable cohort of good people in the fabric of the societies of both countries who will reflect on these types of developments. They are unlikely to look at the rise of these populists as some necessary disruptive positive development. They are unlikely to continue to view them as heroes. But rather history and experience will more likely see these opportunist mé féiners as abominations, out only for their own interests, no matter how they dress it up otherwise. While they try to present themselves as representing the ordinary decent folk, the ordinary decent folk are not likely to accept this identity for long.

A sign of the tide beginning to turn could be the start of an Impeachment Inquiry into Trump over his attempt to use the withdrawal of military aid from the Ukraine in order to damage an opponent.

This all does effect Ireland indirectly, with Trump and Boris both seeming so ill-informed about the Irish history.

There’s not much time for blogging these days, but today needs to get a recognition for it’s sheer historic momentousness.

In a nutshell – the Supreme Court has carried a ruling by the Scottish High Court which basically stated that the Prime Minister Boris Johnson had in fact prorogued parliament illegally, that he had lied to the Queen and that officially, the Supreme Court declared the prorogation null and void.

Meanwhile that very Prime Minister met today with Leo Varadkar on the fringes of the UN Conference in New York.

Interestingly, Ireland and Varadkar are looking less problematic for Johnson at this moment than some of his parliamentary colleagues back in Britain.

Johnson is due back in Parliament in Britain tomorrow morning where business is to be resumed as usual.

There is now the stunning possibility that Theresa May’s original withdrawal agreement might be revived now that No Deal has been effectively outlawed.

Therefore he has really backed himself into a corner of his own making. And could even be eligible for the title of Britain’s shortest ever serving Prime Minister – now there’s a tantalizing prospect.

An exercise in optics perhaps – but the Prime Minister came to Dublin this morning for a photo-call with Leo Varadkar. Incredibly, all of the indications are that this was a somewhat successful venture for both sides. If nothing else to draw back from the cliff-edge of the poor diplomatic relations between the two governments.

The biggest development regarding this visit is that there seems to be a sense that the Northern Ireland Only Backstop could actually be returning to the table.  The main reason why this could be reappearing is that DUP members are no longer any addition to the Conservatives given the number of expulsions and resignations from the party.

Some commentators such as Tommy Gorman RTE’s northern correspondent is stating that a hard brexit will leave the DUP in a bit of a pickle. I’m not sure they would concur with that – but it’s unlikely he’d say it if there wasn’t some grounds for saying it.

And tonight, BBC Newsnight is also reporting the same possibility of the NI only backstop – which would effectively be the border down the Irish Sea.

Meanwhile the Tory Government has been defeated again twice today just in time for it’s 5 week prorogation.  One of the most significant defeats was this evening when the Parliament passed a law requiring the UK Government to release all the documents relating to Operation Yellow Hammer which shows the full cost of No Deal to the British Economy.

Probably “job done” today from an Irish perspective – a polite welcome in Dublin, a hint of a shift in Johnson’s position, several more defeats for the Prime minister and maximum pressure on him prior to the suspension of the parliament. The act forcing the Government to avoid a No Deal exit has been signed into law today by the Queen. The question is of course whether the Government will abide by it.

A further twist is that the Speaker of the House of Commons has announced that he will resign on 31st October.

Today is again being rated as yet another “tempestuous” day. Parliament is in stalemate. People who have studied British politics are drawing parallels between this era and the Oliver Cromwell era 300 years ago. This has been nothing short of fascinating for the neutral by-stander.

Dramas Abound

1.  Starting with yesterday’s defeat on the introduction of the anti-no-deal bill, that was followed by a further Government defeat on the draft of that bill, then a further defeat on his request for support of a general election.
2. It is one drama after another. One of the main dramas is the cull of the 21 Tory MPs, so many of them senior Tories such as Sir Nicholas Soames, the grandson of Winston Churchill, as well as 2 former chancellors as well as several former ministers. Today the backlash against this removal of the party whip has been ferocious, only for them to discover that their replacements had been lined up all along.
3. Another drama is the sense that the Prime Minister is being lead and said by Dominic Cummings who is seen as a hated and unelected bully. It seems that while the PM is lying that there is progress being made on the EU negotiation, privately Dominic Cummings his chief of staff is saying that those negotiations are actually a sham.
4. The refusal of the leader of the opposition to agree to a general election. It’s simply because the opposition don’t trust the Tory PM to hold the election in such a way as it does not interfere with the no deal deadline.
5. The filibuster by the House of Lords set to take place overnight.
6. The prorogation of parliament has dragged the Queen into this entire debacle.
7. The simple reality of the fact that the no deal fuss resolves absolutely nothing as straight after the crash out – there would straight away be a request from Britain to the EU to make a deal on trade.
8. The effects of the fixed term parliament act versus the effects of a fast and loose referendum.
9. The site of the Leader of the House slouching along several seats of the front bench of the house – seen as the very embodiment of arrogance –  a truly spectacular own goal at an unbelievably sensitive time in the lifetime of his Government.