One week into the Premiership of Boris Johnson and we now know what his war cabinet looks like. He has his old rival Michael Gove as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster in charge of no-Deal Brexit preparations, he has Dominic Raab, talking tough as the Foreign secretary. Essentially he has a cabinet packed full of Brexiters – anyone who was not on board with no-deal was dismissed.

The EU for it’s part has remained relatively unshaken with a further reiteration by Michel Barnier last week that the new Prime Minister’s demands are unacceptable.

The unraveling of the relationship between London and Dublin is concerning for sure. But it’s just a question of how big of a story it really is.

The pound has weakened in the past week against the Euro indicating that business people don’t really believe the UK is prepared for no deal. Vauxhall cars has said that no deal is simply not an option.

Brexit Cult

Sure there is an almost cult-like fanaticism about this new cabinet and government. Regardless of how loyal they may be to Brexit, traders are not likely to bet on sterling improving if there is a no-deal.  And that cult is bordering on the ridiculous with Jacob Rees Mogg apparently giving civil servants instructions to revert to giving measurements in imperial system units.

The question is sometimes asked if the Irish position is in fact unnecessarily risky and intransigent. The position of this commentator is the opposite in fact. And tomorrow evening’s column will be setting out the argument that Ireland must not allow itself to be even drawn into such a commentary, let alone react. As to do so would be to unnecessarily acknowledge the silly position of the Brexiteers and give their side more oxygen than they deserve.

It’s hard to imagine a more defining day in political history. Already people like Gordon Brown are referring to this as the “last” Prime Minister of the UK.

He is also being referred to as the shortest Prime Minister and almost certain to be the worst Prime Minister, even worse than his predecessor.

“No incoming leader has faced such a daunting set of circumstances” is what the Financial Times has stated about his coronation.

The most significant factor about it is that now the Vote Leave campaign have their man in No. 10. That means they need to own all of the problems which they will bring about.

The Government has a majority of only 2.

In a rare moment of sport relief, this weekend offered everyone a welcome distraction from the slide in English / Irish relations in the expectation of a no deal harder than hard Brexit.

Coveney on Marr

Yesterday, Ireland pre-empted the mess that this week is already set to be in expectation of Borris Johnson being selected as PM tomorrow. Theresa May is one more day away from going to Buckingham palace to resign.

In theory, Johnson is due to be appointed straight after. However, there could be drama given that there has already been resignations and promises of more.

In deciding how to vote next Friday, all I’ll be wondering about is what would these four degenerates want me to do with my vote… and I will then proceed to do the exact opposite.

From reading various online posts in recent days, it’s clear my group of friends is a broad church, politically speaking. Many seem to be [rightly] anxious about homelessness in Ireland, many perturbed about the current Government’s record on local issues such as hospitals, broadband and public expenditure. Others have a preference for left of centre and/or Irish Nationalist representation.

There is far less comment however on the link between the very real problems we are facing daily in Ireland right now (and will even more so after Brexit) and the populist wave sweeping across Europe. No keyboard warfare devoted to the major Geo Political movements which are unfolding just across the drink from us (both E and W) as well as up the road from us in NI and how all that trickles down fairly quickly, to all of us in the ROI. So I believe that this time, we should indeed be keeping a firm eye on the bigger picture.

Take the financial crisis which happened only a decade ago. Where was the root of all that chaos? Answer: Runaway sub-prime lending in the US under the slack, greedy Bush (Republican) administration. They approved mortgages for every dead-beat meth-head in the rust belt, with no regard whatsoever for their credit ratings… like they couldn’t have predicted that money would never be paid back. The ensuing Financial crisis lead to a decade of austerity and eventually the homeless crisis we see  in Ireland today. But the source of the problem originated squarely in the US.

Then there’s the refugee crisis – where did that all stem from? Answer: The disruption caused by the so-called Arab Spring uprisings in North Africa and the Middle East, leading to the destablising of countries like Lybia and Syria. Which in turn lead to countries like the UK, the US and France sending air strikes in these countries, completely interfering in the normal balance of power with no safe exit strategy. Just like in Iraq and Afghanistan before. The immigration crisis from Syria and North Africa has in turn lead to a return to Far Right sentiment in Europe and Britain. But the origins of the problem were from military intervention by the UK, the US and France in Gaddafi’s Lybia. And by the way now that the flow of refugees is well and truly underway, that’s when Farage, Johnson, Rees-Mogg and Co. decide it’s not their problem and they’re happy to leave the EU to pick up the pieces.

So when we toddle down to our local national schools and vote in our own little local end EU elections in Ireland, how we cast our votes here does matter. We should try not to disregard the wave of populism which is being stoked up by the likes of Farage, Trump and Putin. They present themselves as all agin the establishment – they, the heroes of the ordinary man and woman. But they’re absolutely neither of these things. The opposite in fact – these guys are the establishment, or at least their billionaire buddies are. They’re just against the outright success story that the EU has been. And the Brexit which they have in one way or another conjured up and financed, will have a hugely detrimental effect on Ireland and Irish people. They are no friends of Ireland.

On Friday, my votes will be deliberately directed in favour of those Irish parties who are strongly pro EU and EU savvy. A strong EU is the only possible counter-balance to the madness that is sweeping global politics, being fueled by the likes of these eejits (above). But don’t underestimate the power of all our votes to help to stop them in their tracks as they seek to destroy our peace and prosperity and our very way of life in the EU. There’s nothing these assholes want more than a fragmented, confused, weakened Europe. So regardless of many of our reservations about FG and FF, at least both parties are well connected to the voting blocs at EU level and are themselves vehemently pro EU. And so are Labour, the Greens and the Social Democrats.

For their part, the FG party leadership has also been extremely effective in keeping the pressure on the Tories in Britain, in relation to Brexit. And Michael Martin has been very principled and patriotic (Ireland first, not FF) in not pulling the rug out from under them.  That could all count for a lot in the months and years to come. So, as tempting as it is to vote for that charming cute hoor of a local politician who can make all sorts of ill thought-out, empty promises at election time like Peter Casey, it’s the potential for post-Brexit fall-out that we should all be thinking of in the ballot box come Friday. 

The above heading is not recent. But it’s chosen for this back-to-Brexit piece for this blog, because of the events of the past 2 weeks over the Easter break, in which it is again becoming clear that Britain could end up with this cartoon character as it’s Prime Minister. Quite inconceivable in any of the decades up to this one that someone of this low level of competence and nouse could be chosen to lead such a significant country.

So those same ardent nationalist brits who are so determined that what they want as the Best for Britain is so far superior to what anyone else wants as the best for Britain seem that they see no irony at all in this. In fact, they are gloriously oblivious to the fact that they are barreling towards achieving what hundreds, perhaps thousands of years of wars against Britain could not bring about – the disastrous destruction of the United Kingdom as we know it by anointing the great Boris as their Tzar. In other words, if anyone’s aim was ever to bring about the downfall of Britain, as was the goal say of Hitler’s Germany, or the Old, the Provisional as well as the new IRAs, then they could not do a better thing for their cause than promote the election to the post of Prime Minister, this almighty mutton-head. Yet none of these enemies ever thought of doing such a thing.

Imagine if there was such an enemy of Britain in the world today who had somehow engendered the atmosphere around Britain’s democracy that we have been seeing in recent months. That enemy must be sitting back now and having a well deserved glass of champagne with old friends. They will just be loving how a plan is coming together, without as much as a single novichok laden bullet fired.

And it is a disaster for Britain and the British, in both it’s cause and it’s effect, as well as both at the same time. The cause, because it is proof [as if any more were needed after the past 3 months] that the British electorate has come completely off it’s rocker. And in it’s effect, because if Britain has not already politically steered itself by now several oceans off i’ts normal course, then it certainly will do now with the introduction of this element to No. 10 Downing St.

See this article from Sky News by Beth Rigby

However, perhaps the biggest take away from this week, although not totally Brexit related but is nonetheless part of the furniture of Brexit, is the image below of the congregation from St. Anne’s Cathedral in Belfast, at the funeral of the journalist Lyra McKee. She is the victim of an indiscriminate New IRA shooting in Derry last week and while her death was probably unintended by the hoodlums who carried it out, they deserve the rotten luck that they had in hitting her and not a police officer.

This death, which is a huge loss, has precipitated a whole raft of incredible pro-peace outpouring of sentiment and the profile of the murder brought political leaders together in Belfast for her funeral. When the priest Fr. Martin Magill, as part of his funeral address pushed some blame squarely at the politicians for the leadership vacuum in which her murder came about, there was a standing ovation in the cathedral, leaving the political leaders abjectly out of step with the crowd.

And they’re all captured together in this frame below – from Jeremy Corbyn on the right to Theresa May, Sinn Fein’s Michelle O’Neill and Mary Lou McDonald and of course, a stern looking Arlene Foster. All in some way connected to the Brexit story and how that effects Ireland and Northern Ireland and how sentiment around Brexit has lead to the atmosphere in which violence almost looks inevitable.

This will be seen historically as a watershed moment and there are reports today that the framework for dialogue to bring the parties back to Stormont for powersharing has already been agreed today, something which seemed highly unlikely before the martyrdom of Lyra McKee. History in the making for sure.

Mercifully, the pressure has come off the Brexit issue in the past couple of days since the extension was granted and agreed (there’s not a word about Brexit on the BBC News website tonight). Giving everyone a much needed break from the torture that has been the debate so far.  That said, no-one is under any illusion that both sides of the war are not just pulling back to regroup for the whole thing to kick off again.

The only reason Brexit is in the Irish news is because of a visit by Nancy Pelosi to Dublin in which she was expressing her support and the support of the Democrats for the Good Friday Agreement. This is likely to catch some of the attention of Brexit supporters, though in and of itself it is unlikely to change their minds about their Utopian dream.

Not forgetting also that a deal could yet be done in relation to the Withdrawal agreement between Labour and Mrs. May, in which case it’s game over for the Remain contingent. Although the shadow boxing is in full swing on that front according to the Guardian today.

From Wednesday night into yesterday was a massive 24 hours for the Brexit process. No sooner had the news broke to the media about the outcome of the European Council meeting than the news wires were literally “full” of the story about the arrest of Julian Assange. A decision that was obviously taken by some arm of the British State. Coincidence?

And also, in some way is the story of Brexit really that remote from one another the Assange / WikiLeaks story and are either of them that remote from the story of the election of the President of the US in 2016, or more to the point, the failure of Hillary Clinton to be elected and thus giving rise to the populist choice. In his reaction to the arrest, DT asserted that he knew nothing about WikiLeaks which was in direct contradiction to the effusive statements he had been making during his campaign. Why? Why is he hiding his interest in Assange’s WikiLeaks. Could it be that there is in fact a direct link? Could it be that there is also a link to Brexit. Could that link also be a possible risk to centrist politicians in the upcoming EU elections?

Today marked the launch of the new Brexit party in the UK.

Again, this individual and his supporters persist in positioning themselves as the spokepersons for all that has been supposedly historically fantastic about Britain and all things Anglican. I would argue precisely the opposite.

The best thing about Britain and the British is their understatedness. This new breed of bumptious British activist is anything but typical of the best of Britain. Yet he seems to get away with positioning himself in a completely truthless, baseless light. It beggars belief how this fallacy is going unchecked by hordes of British people.

Listen to this interview from Ch 4 on the recent second coming of populism.

Yesterday there was an infographic in the Guardian which gives a clear indication of where we go from now to the culmination of the Brexit process.

This has now been superseded by the outcome of last night’s meeting of the EU Council. The new date of Brexit has been set on a “flextension” basis to the end of October.

Straight out of the traps the DUP’ers are in massively critical mode towards the Prime Ministers. Sounding like broken records but the problem now is that they simply don’t trust Theresa May.

Corbyn is also relatively positive about the talks that his party are having with the Tories. There may even be a spirit of compromise going on. It was stated this morning on Morning Ireland that the political system in the UK is different to the rest of Europe in that they’ve only had one coalition in 70 years which is against the trend overall in Europe. In other words, they’re not strong on compromise and coalition.

There is now every likelihood that the UK will have to put candidates forward for the European Elections, who will sit for whatever length of time it will take up to whenever the Deal becomes expected.

There is now some breathing space – it is no longer the case that No Deal will happen tomorrow.

And now there are a whole range of possibilities which can happen now, but the bottom line is that the most likely thing becomes that the eventual Brexit will almost certainly be softer. It also brings the possibility of a second vote more into focus.

For a full run down on where things are at – the Guardian nails it with the article by Martin Kettle. But if Martin is right, it’s possible that the moment has passed. It’s possible that the Brexiteers threw the kitchen sink at the issue, dredging up all that old war-time rhetoric and in doing so, probably tarnished for many the image of Britain’s war achievement itself.  And it’s likely that the public will take a breath and will now see the wood for the trees.  But for now – a break for everyone.

All the action is in Brussels this afternoon and tonight and the expectation is that a long extension will be granted to Theresa May’s Britain. In London the grand-standing is of how leave supporting Tory MP’s are disgusted by why more of their own party did not vote against an extension on Tuesday night.

But there is also a feeling that the extension is the lesser of 2 evils – with the Customs Union which Labour.

The language used by reporting organisations is so much part of the whole problem about Brexit. Take the headline below from the erudite Matt Frei from Channel 4. The headline is completely misleading and provocative in the febrile atmosphere of these times. Why can’t people just use normal language that’s not intended to incite more anxiety.

At this moment, I’m not even sure that a no deal is still completely ruled out for this Friday (2 days time). The mood however does seem to be changing.

While every day there are still occurrences that could be described as historic and unprecedented and unimaginable at any time in the past, there is also a serious dose of Brexit fatigue everywhere. All of this posturing is extremely nauseating and boring. But this also it could be said, is the time to keep your eye on the ball.

One of the events which is being viewed as extremely noteworthy is yesterday’s passing into law of the Cooper/Letwin delay amendment – passed in only 3 working days.

Today’s news is that while Theresa May makes a whistle stop tour of Paris and Berlin the EU is considering the length of the extension to article 50 which will be allowed to the UK tomorrow at the EU Council as well as the conditions attached to it.

What is nothing short of ridiculous however is the shenanigans she leaves behind her in London, with her Tory representatives and Labour failing to make any great progress in their discussions and then within the Tories where there is endless talk of them splitting up and the Prime Minister is even pitied by people because of the humiliation she is being forced to accept.

One of the stories from yesterday was the article by leading Daily Mail journalist who has had something of a Road to Damascus type of u-turn. Not something that any of the rest of us are surprised about. He says that we “didn’t know” that industries would leave Britain… how could they not have known? He also acknowledges that

Again, it is a major wonder to me how these awful clueless commentators are wiling their way onto the national airwaves, not because they have anything worthwhile to offer, but because they provoke a reaction albeit that is one of disgust.

But why is there nothing by way of any credible opposition to these empty vessels such as this commentator below who does the papers review on Sky News late in the evening – Claire Fox of the Institute of Ideas. This awful commentator keeps getting airplay even though she gives nothing impartial, just the “leave” line all the time even though she’s not putting forward any logic, she is only capable of playing to her public gallery. And the wonder is why do these TV channels keep giving platforms to useless pointless windbags like this. When the Brexit history is written, there needs to be a lot of chapters devoted to this dangerous phenomenon in media.