Michel Barnier’s main message today in Dublin was a welcome one which was that regardless of whether there was a deal or not between the EU and the UK.

Meanwhile the coverage of the possibility of “No Deal” has slipped even further into various technical proposals about what may or may not happen, almost too heated and too complicated for the ordinary person to get their head around it.

The Debate

Where the debate seems to all centre around these days is hard Brexiteers placing a massive “bet” on how they believe a no deal Brexit will pan out in practice. They are holding firm and becoming ever more entrenched in their positions. The rest are not believing this big bet by the Brexiteers and are instead frantically working to ensure that they do not succeed in placing this short-termist bet for fear of what the consequences will be everywhere.

The rest of us are faced with having to decide which side of the debate about this massive game of roulette we believe or are prepared to accept.

For my part, I’m almost gone past caring about who is or isn’t right. Instead I’m resigned to the fact that a no deal Brexit could still very easily happen “by accident”. It wouldn’t be true to say that I don’t care about that, because my bet would be that the consequences could indeed be very dire and things could fairly easily cascade out of control in a fairly serious case of a law of unintended consequences.  In the event of this I would expect the hard Brexiteers and the DUP etc. would still blame everyone else besides themselves.  So there’s little or no point listening to anything they would say. Apart from the fact they are reduced to talking a load of old twoddle anyway [just louder and more insistent than before]they are pre-programmed just to dig in and equate it to 1930’s Britain, they’ll probably be proved to be wrong but by then it’ll be too late the damage will have been done and even if they are held to account over it, there will be no comeback for those whose lives they have affected.

Therefore the only thing people like us who are far removed from the whole thing can do, is whatever we can do to just carry on regardless and ignore them. This it would seem is the best solution to Brexit. Ensure that we have enough good things going for us that the negative effects on us are mitigated as much as is possible.

Meanwhile the new law forcing the Prime Minister to ask the EU for another extension to article 50 has made it through the Lords tonight and needs only to go to the Queen for Royal seal. They have also taken the first steps towards British MEP candidates standing in the European elections. So nothing to see here then.

There is fierce resistance to no deal from the “Grown Ups” in this process – the EU leaders, the Irish Government and the more responsible players in the UK.

It is clearly therefore correct on their part to try and avoid the risk of such a situation, they are more likely to be in the know than anyone. If it weren’t for that it would be equally as tempting for those who are less in the know such as people like me, to be happy to let the UK go. If they have been this prone to populist decision-making then it should be left to them to leave and fend for themselves. It is clearly the most idiotic idea they could have ever pushed for and in the process they have wasted everyone’s time. Some countries are threatening it seems to veto an extension to article 50 for them, out of sheer frustration with them. You could see where they’d be coming from.

The main sticking point in the Labour / Tory talks is the customs union.

With the likes of the Leader of the House Andrea Leadsom coming out with old tosh like the above statement, the question is how much store can anyone put on her statement? How knowledgeable is she actually on the subject of import/export, what does she know about how it would play out? How actually trustworthy is her word on this potentially biggest decision the commons has taken since WW2. Personally I would not believe a single word she’d say, she comes across as entirely vacuous. But I’d love to see her forced to eat her words.

Neither would I be known for giving Sinn Fein much backing, but the piece below from the Journal.ie identifies an issue on which their position is entirely correct.

Again, it seems the British media has been entirely remiss, giving a platform to clowns like Jacob Rees Mogg. Yet failing to properly highlight the dangers of the No Deal risk.

If this goes as badly as it is expeted it will, the Media will have to take it’s fair share of blame for failing to warn the British public sufficiently as to the problems with Brexitl

This is not how these stories are supposed to go. When those people who consider themselves to be – the ordinary general public – are already jaded from having to listen to every twist and political turn in this mind-numbingly convoluted story, they’re not supposed to be having to face up to the possibility that it could all be about to get 100 times worse for them. Yet it looks like it is possible that that’s exactly what might happen. Far from being like a bad dream so far where they’re about to wake up and everything set to be hunky dory again, it’s clear that leaders like Angela Merkel, who was in Dublin yesterday and Michel Barnier who will be in Dublin on Monday are actually now bracing themselves for a no-deal, albeit that it could be a semi-accidental one.

I am now split down the middle myself. Donald Tusk, head of the EU council has said that a “flextension” for a year should be made available to Britain. So, far in all matters, Tusk has come across as level-headed, patient and sensible. He is preaching a message of tolerance – tolerant of British indecision and turmoil.

Emmanuel Macron however is beginning to talk tough – along the lines of enough is enough. They are treating Britain as out of control and therefore capable of infecting the EU with further chaos if they are allowed to stay in the EU for the MEP elections in June. In particular, it is clear that a tweet by Jacob Reese Mogg [as cited in the Guardian article above] has spooked the French. And probably they have very good reason to be spooked.

I only display his tweets below, despite my preference to avoid giving any publicity to him and the likes of him, but rather to show for future looking back the depth of his horrendousness. In a way, it might be just time to expose populism for what it is and let him have his way, along with all those people who are dominating the airwaves, unthinkingly demanding that they “just want out”. If they want out, maybe they should be let out and just that we all hope it keeps fine for them.

There was also a leak in the roof of the commons, but it was nothing to do with any debates to do with Brexit.

Good lord, what are they doing to Britain? Even before Brexit happens, homelessness and deprivation under the Tory government is effecting young children and their parents. How much worse is that going to get under this elitist Tory mess called Brexit?

How dysfunctional can that get?

It’s no wonder this has got to the pitch it is currently running at. The Guardian today has also run the following story about the Brincels – which is translated as the Brexit Involuntarily Celibates.

It looks like this group has actually succeeding in staining the reputation of the Brexit project. Maybe not early enough to put enough people off their message of hatred, but better late than not at all.

The votes which happened lastnight almost deadlocked as reported by Channel 4 .

Just when I thought no-one in Britain was aware of or thinking of the blindingly obvious paradox that the lives of so many Britons were being so drastically altered by such a small number of DUP members of parliament (amongst others), out comes this poll which shows that actually Ipsos Mori / King’s College London must have spotted the same anomaly. And they’ve published the results of their poll.

Some of the results are of very little interest, however some of their findings are significant. Particularly their finding that although when the Scottish independence referendum was being run, most Britons wanted Scotland to remain part of the Union, in this case in relation to NI, most Britons either would prefer if NI was returned to be part of the rest of Ireland or they don’t mind either way.

This finding must be quite a turn up for the books for both Nigel Dodds and the ERG. What it really points out is that most Britons haven’t even considered NI important enough to remain in the UK never mind drag them politically out of the EU in a disorderly way along with themselves. Therefore it wouldn’t be long, if that were allowed to happen, before a blame game would start.

A representative of the ERG on Channel 4 news has expressed how detrimental he feels it will be if Theresa May depends on Corbyn’s Labour to get her deal through the house of Commons, however was woolly when asked the opposite question of “so what”?

Sky News for their part are giving air play to the Governer of the Bank of England who is it seems in agreement with the EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier, that the chances of an accidental no-deal are now higher than ever.

The opinion of the day is from The Conversation.com

Seven hours of negotiations were underway in London’s no. 10 Downing St.

Then there was a slightly more palatable and constructive statement from the Prime Minister. The proposal which came out of that was a suggestion of cross party discussion with Labour. Hmm… that sounded familiar.

The timing however of all of this could be up against the European Parliamentary election.

It is also politically turbulent – a representative of the ERG Anne-Marie Morris on Channel 4 News suggested that there are a lot of moving parts and sounded at least vaguely threatening, to the effect that there are a lot of Tories deeply unhappy who will never vote for May’s deal again.

We Still Don’t Know What London Wants

This is often a charge that is laid at the door of the parliament in London – we know what they don’t want, but we don’t know what they do want. Technically this is a correct statement. London is voting against everything, but with no-one stepping up and displaying the leadership necessary to take a political risk and opt for something unpalatable, effectively going against the populist cause. Hard to judge, hard and risky to execute, but very necessary now if the log-jam is to be broken. Everyone is standing back saying “no you first, no you first”. Article: Drastic times call for bold thinking by Sky News.

The cabinet also had the benefit of a letter to Ministers from top civil servant Mark Sedwill of a doomsday scenario for Britain under “a no deal” with the EU.

Over recent weeks, this blog has pointed out how the British media has been remiss in not highlighting the impact that the position of the DUP is taking will have on ordinary Brits across mainland Britain. Over the weekend, the story broke that arch Unionist Nigel Dodds has now said that he would forfeit leaving the EU rather than risk the Union between NI and Britain. So by extension, those ordinary Brits whose lives suffer as a result of Brexit if it happens, will be left also asking why it was that the option of staying in the EU was not explored more fully, seeing as that was less unpalatable than the type of Brexit they’re heading for now which will be [No Deal] and precisely because the DUP would not vote in favour of the EU withdrawal agreement. It’s important to record this admission and this moment at this time because actually, it’s hard to believe that he’d say this and hard to believe that people wouldn’t pick up on it. Although Coveney here has said it is not a representative opinion – which is in itself a curious way to address the Dodd’s assertion.

There have been many historic days in the British Parliament in the story of Brexit – today is shaping up to be one of the most historic. More points to follow after this evening’s indicative votes in the Commons.

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Running Events after 10pm

22:15pm

22:05pm

All 4 indicative vote proposals rejected by parliament. The closest run of these things was a permanent customs union, lost by only 3. The option of a second referendum, though defeated was only lost by 12 votes.

21:55pm

21:50pm

The headline above was chosen as the most significant angle of the day – the view of the British public appears to be that it’s worth paying the price of losing out on or at least risking Britain’s standing in the world. This chaos doesn’t look like it could be worth it. The EU’s view is that they have been very patient with Britain’s political woes. That might not last.

The only other thing that’s really worth bothering reviewing is this interview with Andrew Marr.

On to MV4 – possibly as early as tomorrow. Along with another series of indicative votes. A febrile week ahead – almost certain.

If you’re explaining, you’re losing…

There are lots of MP’s in Britain doing lots of explaining about what exactly they think is going on, on what was supposed to be Brexit Day. Independence Day.

Today – half of Theresa May’s Brexit deal was put to Parliament again – and even that half deal was defeated, again. That despite the Prime Minister’s promise to resign. Dozens of MP’s who had refused to back the deal on previous occasions had swung in behind it today.

Outside of Parliament, there was a large Leave Means Leave rally which was full of people who, can only be described as irksome. They seem insistent, petty, thoughtless and down-right unnerving. As I look at them, as I hear what they have to say, it is all the more confirming about why I can’t identify with what they’re like and what they want. Except that it would be better for the EU if people like that were allowed to find the exit door – they have nothing to offer.

So on Monday, alternative indicative votes will be voted on again. Meanwhile, the EU is planning to hold an EU Summit on April 10th.

But before then, as all of the above is not concerning enough, the UK Brexiters have just received a so-called boost from John Bolton, Security Secretary to the US President..  Good lord, this type of thing signals that we really are entering a whole new era of worldwide disorder based of “stupid” supremacy.

Banksy’s Devolved Parliament painting… so apt

It all seems a little quieter today. Except for one or two things maybe…

For example, one thousand business leaders met today to send the message to Westminster they have let British business down. They have been told to stop chasing rainbows.

Now the talk is of a vote tomorrow for one half of the Prime Minister’s Deal –  the Withdrawal Agreement which is only the Divorce element. This idea and the reason for this approach, is to ensure that the meaningful vote doesn’t contravene the Speaker’s ruling that the same motion cannot be reintroduced to Parliament.

The accusation against the ERG Tories is that they became prepared to swing around behind the PM’s deal as soon as they decided there was a chance of one of their chums getting their hands on the top job.