The review of the week just gone is like something out of the coverage of a country in civil war where there are so many massive events taking place, so many moving parts, that no-one is quite sure where they should be focusing their attention. Blink and you’re sure to have missed something massively significant. It already seems like it was a couple of weeks ago that there were stark and dire warnings about tariffs on agri produce like beef – that was only on Wednesday morning, following the defeat of the Meaningful Vote in the commons on Tuesday night.

By Wednesday night, that already seemed like ancient history, because the parliament voted to reject no deal in all circumstances. And then on Thursday the vote was to extend Article 50. Yet while there may be a collective sigh of relief that the world has reached the weekend – there was a very grave distraction this morning (perhaps not completely unrelated even) in the form of a massive terrorist attack by far right extremists on 2 mosques in ChristChurch in NZ, which tragically left 49 people dead.

Ye’d have the sense that while it’s hard to digest all that has happened in that short 5 days since Sunday night, this week and this period of Parliament will be studied and dissected for many decades to come. What events happened, how did they happen, why did they happen, what did they effect and what would be the resultant outcomes?

Negotiations are ongoing at any rate. The stricken PM is resting her croaky voice today but the DUP have been to Downing St.   This is their finest hour. When everyone else is exhausted and ready to take a breather, in they swoop under the radar, like vultures – picking over the carcass of broken Brexit promises. The so called ERG group were more than happy to stand back from taking any real blame for how bad anything might go, tipping their hats to the DUP as the Madra Mor’s of hard brexiteering. The likes of Sammy Wilson then laughing it all off saying he was an optimist and that they had faced far tougher negotiations in the past. Philip Hammond is said to have brought his cheque book to the meetings in Downing St. – those wily old DUP foxes.

Is no one in mainland Britain or in the mainstream British media capable or willing to question the extent to which the DUP has held the whole of the rest of Britain and it’s famous Parliament to randsome? Astonishing how it doesn’t seem to occur to anyone to question whether they and their union to England, Wales and Scotland is even worth it. And now, as if it wasn’t enough that the DUP had reportedly extracted a full £1bn GBP out of the exchequer at the start of their confidence and supply agreement with the Tories, they are now rolling the British taxpayer for even more. And that, only after they had already almost brought the whole British political establishment crashing down, cost it endless amount of credibility across Europe and probably globally and caused untold loss of confidence in British business. Certainly not a mindset to be admired.

Who’d be a British govt minister having to look at those wizen old hard noses and faces for a whole weekend.

Also read:  Cicero Brexit insights

Sooo much to discuss…

It will now be at least the 30th of June before the UK Brexit happens. There is a short extension option and a long extension option. The current plan as it stands is that next week there will be Meaningful Vote 3. There is talk of inserting portions of clauses into the Withdrawal Deal itself to keep the DUP happy.  The only positive out of all of this chaos is that at last, hard core Brexiteers will now be having serious doubts that they will ever get any better Brexit than the one they’ve already been offered.

It has been generally accepted that there has been an amazing consensus within the European 27 on the approach of the EU to the handling of Brexit. The only thing there is some disparity on is the potential length of any extension. So there are still a heap of different permutations of whys and wherefores of what may or may not happen.

It looks certain now that even if the Speaker of the House John Bercow does not refuse to allow a third vote, the PM will still be dependent on Labour votes from MP’s from Leave constituencies – at least 85 of them in fact to make up for the 75 Tories on whose votes she can’t depend on plus the 10 DUP votes who are still unlikely to be brought around.

Leo was meanwhile in the White House today getting some Brexit support from the US for St. Patrick’s weekend –

Another incredibly historic day.

Highlights

• The Sky News feed outlined this morning how 87% of products would be tariff free – however most of the products which would be subject to tariffs would be agricultural produce – hitting Ireland extremely hard. However already that news seems like a long time ago
• It would have different lower tariffs sending goods to NI than those which would have gone to the UK
• Mrs. May had been forced to allow a free vote in relation to the vote on whether to take “No deal” off the table
• The house voted to take no deal of the table
• The house voted to reject the Malthouse amendment which would have proposed an alternative deal, delaying Brexit and removing the Backstop.
• The PM set on pursuing a third meaningful vote
• Leo Varadkar suggests things are better tonight than they were last night – presumably because it looks like the Parliament could be swinging away from a hard brexit.
• Sky interviewee – She’s a minority Prime Minister who has never come to terms with the parliamentary arithmetic

Remarkably, the votes tonight may be enough to start convincing the hard Brexiteers that they may have to support the Withdrawal Agreement.

There were so many aspects of today, but like most people, I just didn’t have time to keep up with all the angles. And in all honesty, the over riding sense is that people are getting frustrated with the ridiculousness of it all. Including Leo –

The chances of a No Deal scenario has just dramatically increased – so say many of the voices at EU level, particularly Jean-Claude Juncker.

Probably the big worry for most of these people is that there is now a suggestion that the vote asking for the No Deal option to be taken off the table may now possibly be defeated tomorrow.

So even as the Pound had been rising and rising in recent days and weeks against the Euro, the expectation was that no deal could have been avoided – it went as high as 85p to the Euro. I wouldn’t be surprised if it began to lose those gains again in tomorrow’s trading.

In the middle of the whole drama the Prime Minister lost her voice (perhaps symbolically enough). The saying emerged that “Theresa May has lost her voice and Jeremy Corbyn has nothing to say”.

Interesting now to consider who might now emerge and step in as a persuasive force to fill the power vacuum – the debate is about the tug-o-war between who is to be in control of the process from now – “the Executive and the Legislature”.

What drama, what history tonight while storm Gareth blows strongly unsettling the very backdrop to the political upset.

The EU for it’s part is categorically stating that there is nothing more left to be conceded. Theresa May’s defeat has been by another resounding 149 votes this time.

As bad as all of this seems and feels as it is going on, from our point of view in the Republic of Ireland, there is one and only one source of comfort in it all, and that is that we feel at least we are on the right side of the argument, the right side of the border and the right side of the Irish Sea.

One of the most interesting questions from the newspapers (The Daily Express) is how much more of this can Britain take.

Some are even concerned that even if the parliament were to pass a vote to extend article 50, the EU might not allow very much of an extension.

At last, journalists on the Sky News on the press review are finally showing a fair chunk disdain and criticism of their entire political classes. The chorus of criticism is now very real. Tom Newton Dunne even stating about the situation outside Westminster with about 100 each on either side of the argument shouting one another down in a sea of mud outside the parliament making it seem, as Donald Tusk had suggested, like their very own special place in hell. And it’s only getting started.

The main criticism of the British Prime Minister is that the deal she seems to be planning for tomorrow’s so called “Meaningful Vote” is, for now, precisely the same as the one which was resoundingly rejected by an historic margin of 230 votes in January.

The DUP seems to be the key element, which, despite reports a few weeks back that they may be softening, appear to be as staunch as ever. And this undoubtedly causing the EU negotiators to be, themselves, unyielding. How can they be seen to capitulate? This is what is causing the deadlock, resulting in the ever increasingly massive game of poker.

May is tonight on her way to Strasbourg and is expected to make a statement at 10:00pm.  The Guardian is mapping out tonight and the coming days as follows:

Another big conundrum is how long would any extension be, with Tories favouring only a short extension of only up to 3 months, while the EU perhaps only agreeing to a long extension of no less than 18 months in order to break the deadlock.

10:00pm – David Liddington tells House of Commons has secured legally binding agreement about arbitration procedures were it deemed that the EU had not acted in good faith.

Quick Post – This is just breath-taking

Novel ideas still coming to the fore to try to break the deadlock. And with customary intransigence, the DUP has already come out with their bluster about how this is disrespecting the constitutionality of NI. In fairnessss…. where dooo they get off.

How are there not street protests all over Northern Ireland about the embarrassment that the degree of short-sightedness that this type of reactionary belligerence shows them in? I suppose their supporters think that this is some type of skill the DUP has and that people in other countries would somehow look on in admiration at their “steadfastness”. And not just plain fundamentalism, which is what it actually is. As abject a fundamentalism as that of any other political regime anywhere which causes this amount of division.

Read this article in the Guardian… it sums up just how divided the sides are. Personally, I would go as far as to say I disagree with absolutely everything the UK side says and does and I agree 100% with the European side. No half measures.

I was never a Brit-basher and I don’t believe I will be now either. Nonetheless, I’m certainly less favourable towards Britain at the moment. And I’m wondering if as the crash-out Brexit story could start to take on a more global scale as it grinds closer to a shuddering halt [if that happens] will the eyes of the world, which are currently not too interested in what’s going on in London, then look back at what is happening there this week in total dismay.

The headline below signals a potentially interesting clip – unfortunately the clip is too focused on China not Brexit, but it’s still worth listening to. [Go straight to the 23rd minute for the bit about Brit-Exit].

Also read:

UK realising EU is dominant power in Europe and Brexit will be on its terms

It’s interesting these days that very few everyday folk will readily talk about the subject of Brexit in their ordinary everyday dealings with one another. When I bring up the “B” word with them, most of them have an opinion about it. Almost all would finish up by saying that a deal will be done in the end.

Yesterday, I spoke with a lady from Northern Ireland who also described herself as a Brexit geek. She notices that the further away from the border region she gets, the less prepared the companies there are for t’Brexit.

It was also mentioned to me today that businesses in the ROI are now beginning to admit at last that sales orders are now actually falling, month after month in a very real way. So while people might not be readily talking about it around dinner tables, the subject is now certainly lingering around there in the background.

As for Northern Ireland itself, which finds itself so much in the eye of the Brexit / EU negotiation-storm; the following is an excerpt from an Irish Times opinion poll of NI views:

In London the AG Geoffrey Cox has been answering questions about the lack of progress in his dealings with Brussels.

Time is getting tight and talks are expected to run through the weekend – with Sunday night believed to be the deadline to have proposals printed and circulated in time for Tuesday’s vote – possibly the most historic vote in the history of the House of Commons.

For a minute there [that lasted about 7 days] people were beginning to breathe a sigh of relief that a cliff-edge could be avoided. In fact this day last week the GBP rose to as much as €1.17 such was the confidence that the worst might have been avoidable.

Well… already that confidence seems to be have been at best premature, possibly even outright misplaced – today UK AG Geoffrey Cox also seems to have come back from Brussells empty handed.  Good on the EU negotiators I say.  Good on them for not allowing themselves to be gas-lighted by a bunch of vacuous bullies.

And it all seems to have collapsed around the backstop. Sky News tonight seems to be suggesting that the DUP is coming under some pressure from the Northern Irish business community and that there is an even bigger prospect of the Tories splitting.

In other words, the determination of the EU to stand firm is putting pressure back on the Brexiteers. Put simply, if they had been allowed to succeed in any way on this issue of Brexit – where would it end? Not an inch should they be given. Especially given the revelations that there was indeed a strong chance of Russian intervention.